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Ohio Special Election And Other Elections - Open Thread

Posted by Ellen -7859.80pc on August 07, 2018 · Flag

Besides the special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor, there are primary elections in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. As I write this, the Ohio race looks like a nail biter.

I'm watching Fox News which is barely covering any of the races. That suggests to me they do not expect a good night for Republicans. We'll see.

9:23 PM - Balderson is ahead by 1.3%

9:44 PM - O'Connor and Balderson are statistically tied.

Here's what Fox is covering:

 

And now this important story:

 

10 PM - O'Connor is up again, now by .1%

10:04 PM - Balderson just took the lead again. MSNBC's Steve Kornacki does not sound optimistic for O'Connor.

The race is officially too close to call, though it looks like Republican Balderson. Still, the outcome bodes well for Democrats, as per FiveThirtyEight.com.

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Rw Fan commented 2018-08-08 10:17:50 -0400 · Flag
The result on either side was not that important in the big picture, both of these candidates will face off again in 3 months for the 2-year term. Even in defeat, it allows O’Connor a blueprint on what he needs to do to flip the seat, coming so close this time. We all know Trump will claim victory even if his guy lost, saying the same thing, the big race is in November.
truman commented 2018-08-08 09:33:40 -0400 · Flag
Democrats cannot simply sit out this mid-term election and pretend that the blue-wave tsunami will take care of things. Vote! It’s the only way to slow down the damage that Orange Dumbo is inflicting on our nation.
John McKee commented 2018-08-08 03:29:56 -0400 · Flag
Thanks, Ellen and Kevin. It may be a blessing in disguise if it stops Ohio’s sane majority from getting complacent about the ‘Blue Tsunami’ and not realising how CRUCIAL it is for all good men and women to come to the aid of the party in November.
Kevin Koster commented 2018-08-08 02:13:01 -0400 · Flag
Balderson has pretty much won it. The proportion of remaining votes would need to be overwhelmingly for the Dem for this to turn out different.

I see this race as a cautionary one for the Dems. The turnout showed that the race swung up to 13 points toward the Dems from where things were just 2 years ago. Which should be a positive thought, as 538 notes. But that leaves out a major factor which is why the 13 point swing wasn’t enough – the gerrymandering that the GOP has inflicted around the country. In most congressional districts, it would take a much larger swing than 13 points to allow the Dem to win – they’ve been stacked that high. Which is why Dems should not be counting on a massive change in the House this fall. I’m thinking they’ll pick up about 15, maybe 20 seats, which will be a major achievement. But gerrymandering is done for a reason – and this makes the Dems’ work this year much, much harder. It’s why I believe it’s far more crucial for the Dems to get a 1 or 2 vote majority in the Senate, which cannot be gerrymandered. If they put their resources to bear in that direction, they can both protect the country from future malfeasances like the Tax Transfer and can keep a semblance of sanity about the upcoming judicial appointments after Kavanaugh is rammed onto the Supreme Court in October.

It’s possible that the Dems will pull off a historic win and suddenly overwhelm all expectations. Still, I’m thinking it will be more likely that we’ll see them do well, but not at the stratospheric level they’d need to actually change the math in DC these days. I truly hope I’m wrong on that. If I’m right, we’re looking at another 2 years of the Right Wing unravelling this nation one piece at a time.
Ellen commented 2018-08-08 00:48:23 -0400 · Flag
My understanding is it’s a long shot.
John McKee commented 2018-08-07 23:22:50 -0400 · Flag
Anyone know whether provisional votes give us any reason to hope?
John McKee commented 2018-08-07 23:21:01 -0400 · Flag
Well, that’s something, I guess. Is this the guy that said Trump gatecrashed his rally?
Ellen commented 2018-08-07 23:17:22 -0400 · Flag
It’s my understanding the Republican candidate is not a big Trumper.
John McKee commented 2018-08-07 22:52:36 -0400 · Flag
How can people vote for a Trumpist? Have they no sense of decency? At long last, have they left no sense of decency?
Ellen commented 2018-08-07 22:36:56 -0400 · Flag
Five Thirty Eight does not sound optimistic for O’Connor.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/august-7-election-results/








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