Here we go... this could be the beginning of the end for some campaigns and the end of the beginning for others. So many states, so many candidates. Let's talk!
I'll be watching Fox. What are you watching and how are they covering it? Are you glad or sad about the results? Share your thoughts and observations in our comments section.
“Karl Rove Says Virginia Race Is Tightening, Gets Proved Wrong in Less Than 10 Seconds”
I’ll never forget his last election day on-air Fox News meltdown where he refused to accept Mitt’s inevitable defeat. ;^)
A brokered convention is unlikely. The GOP rules were restructured after that last one 64 years ago to make sure it wouldn’t happen again. The GOP brass is now in a situation where it must decide how it will deal with a nominee like Trump. Not a pretty scenario by any means.
Karl Rove was on last night, basically saying that it was a very good night for Trump but he has not sewn up the nomination.
Prep for Der Furor doing endless Hillary looks fat in a pantsuit jokes.
The conventional pundit wisdom pumped on Fox News by the likes of Steve Hayes and Charles Krauthammer is if the GOP field can shrink to The Donald vs fill in the blank single opponent, particularly Rubio, then the ~60% voters opposed to Trump but whose vote is split will topple him. However, the ‘liberal mainstream media’ I’m listening to is saying that ship has about sailed.
As unlikely the scenario, I’m hoping for a bloody (metaphorically speaking) Republican convention fight set up by no single candidate having a majority of delegates. That hopefully would cheese off the fans of the loser(s) so they’d be more likely to stay home.
Any scenario leading to a Republican in the White House will prove a nightmare because it opens the floodgates of the GOP shoving their radical agenda down our throats.
I agree that polls currently show Trump losing badly – which is what my instincts tell me would most likely happen. Which would bring the GOP to their worst defeat in my lifetime. But we really have to see what happens in the fall. This will be a dirty, dirty campaign. The right wingers will try to portray Hillary Clinton as a criminal who should be in jail, and they’ll try to throw every bit of mud they can. Hillary Clinton’s people will portray Trump as an unintelligent boor. It will be a question of whose negatives are bigger. If Clinton can get more people to dislike Trump than he can get to dislike her, she’ll win. Currently, she appears to have a headstart – but don’t discount his ability to close the gap.
And what a surprise this morning – Carson made the expected announcement. Now that he’s essentially gummed up what he could of the Cruz campaign (and stopped Cruz from being able to do that much at his most crucial moments), Carson is admitting defeat and going home. He probably stayed in too long to be able to get that radio show he wanted – it looks like the only souvenir he gets from this campaign is the humiliation of losing it.
But before you make your Victoria (my 1st choice) plane reservations keep in mind Republican Klandidate Trump is probably good news. CNN shows either Hillary or Bernie beating The Donald with likely voters. It’s a toss-up between Hillary and Rubio and (I think) Cruz.
“If 538 shows that Trump is pulling out in front, that would be the time to start saving your pennies and making sure you can withstand a long economic downturn.”
And in addition to that, it would be wise to start thinking about joining the ROTC movement:
R — RUN
O — OFF
T — TO
C — CANADA
Clinton wound up with 486, not 436. She easily hit Silver’s target and appears to be coasting to the nomination. She is now at 1034 delegates, more than 600 ahead of Sanders.
Sanders wound up with 321 not 260 but again was short of the Silver target of 412. So he was nearly 100 delegates short on a day when he absolutely had to win states like Massachusetts. The math no longer works for him, unless he knows how to suddenly generate over 600 delegates.
Trump wound up with 234 where I’d had him at 200 or so. His Silver target was 225, so he’s on schedule to get the nomination without much fuss and without a brokered convention.
Cruz wound up with 209 rather than the 125 I had him at, partly due to him picking up more delegates by winning Alaska. But his target was 302, so he was still 100 short and this was his biggest possible day in the campaign. It’s downhill from here for him. He can choose to either stay in til the convention or accept his defeat before then. I can’t imagine any of the other candidates giving him their support and he can’t win.
Rubio wound up getting 90 rather than my 62 but that’s still over 100 short of the 203 he needed to stay relevant. Some of the upcoming primaries look better for him (his better states were backloaded while Cruz’ were frontloated), but like Cruz, he has no chance to win. And again, the other candidates will not give him their support.
Kasich and Carson remain irrelevant.
At this point, I expect the race to wrap up fairly quickly, particularly if Trump easily beats Rubio in Florida as expected. So the GOP will have Trump as their nominee and the Dems will have Hillary Clinton. (Sanders, as we’ve noted, will give a nice speech at the convention and that will be that.)
The real question now is how the fall campaign goes. Obviously, it will be one of the nastiest, messiest, dirtiest campaigns in the history of this country. Trump is certain to use every foul trick he can. Hillary is certain to bring up every bit of Trump’s unfortunate history. The debates will devolve into insults and bashing of each other. Negatives for both candidates will be huge. So which one has the higher negatives, and which one can motivate a broader voting base to show up?
Trump will definitely get the anti-Hillary vote, with the exception of the hardcore older Sanders supporters, who will likely sit out the election in spite. Trump will get the angry GOP vote, but he won’t be able to get the Cruz voters, as the far right won’t stay with him. And the GOP is split on both ends about Trump, which is why the party establishment is so worried right now. Trump will also get a bunch of the right-leaning angry Dem voters who don’t like Hillary Clinton. What he won’t get is much of the non-white, non-male vote. Will his numbers be enough? Only if a LOT of people don’t show up on the other side.
Hillary Clinton will definitely get the anti-Trump vote, with the exception of the real right-wingers who will never vote for anyone named Clinton. She’ll lose the rightward part of the Democrat side, but she wouldn’t have had their vote in any case. She will likely pick up some moderate GOP votes, given that those guys really don’t want to see Trump get in. (Trump losing is a better scenario for them) She should dominate the non-white, non-male vote. But again, will this be enough? Depends on whether the Sanders folks sitting home really make that much difference. Depends on whether the negatives result in a bunch of people sitting this one out, or if the mutual negatives cancel each other between the two candidates.
We’ll just have to see how the polling goes after the conventions. My instincts say that the American people are smarter than to put someone like Trump into the White House. Eyes on would say that my instincts may be proven wrong here.
If I’m right, we’ll be looking at 4-8 more years of what we’ve just had with President Obama – near total GOP obstruction and obfuscation. Debt ceiling shutdowns, nonsensical public posturing, and general gridlock. But a trickle of progress nonetheless. Clinton will be able to put a non-hawk on the Supreme Court to replace Scalia, and she’ll likely replace both Ginsburg and Breyer during her first term. (It’s the second term where this gets interesting, because that’s when Kennedy would likely step down…) Clinton also could do better than Obama in trying to work deals with Congress, but we’d really have to see how that would go.
If I’m wrong, we’ll be looking at most likely a single term for Donald Trump – potentially the most disastrous 4 years since Herbert Hoover or Warren Harding. Trump’s political inexperience would mean a governmental shutdown worse than what happened under Carter, and his bellicosity would mean America would face hostility from the rest of the world. As I said before, this comes in the form of trade conflicts and in some cases, actual military conflicts. All bets would be off about how many simultaneous conflicts our military would have to engage, given Trump’s tendency to belittle and threaten other people. I could easily see the combined internal and external mess throwing us into a very deep recession, much worse than what happened in 2008-9. (And the GOP will desperately try to blame that on Obama, natch) In short, an America with Donald Trump as its President would be an extremely unhappy place to live, and it would take us years to repair the damage. (It took Obama nearly 4 years to start to repair the damage from W as it is)
I’ll also note that I agree with Ellen – Sean Hannity is bent on simply opposing anything a Democrat in office wants to do. If it’s Democrat, it’s GOT to be bad, according to him. But he’s also an unashamed huckster – if he senses that his listener base is riled up and angry, then he’ll act riled up and angry. If his listener base is feeling patriotic, then by golly, he’s feeling patriotic today. He’ll even say a nice thing about President Obama on the day that bin Laden is killed – because he knows that his base is celebrating the event and doesn’t want to come across as countering that. (Of course, we can thank Limbaugh for his consistent hatred of President Obama – even when bin Laden died, Limbaugh chose to go on a full attack on both Obama and the media…)
I’m fairly concerned about how the fall will look – and I’ll be watching 538 very closely to see how the models are working out. If 538 shows that Trump is pulling out in front, that would be the time to start saving your pennies and making sure you can withstand a long economic downturn.
According NBC “Today” the phrase “How can I move to Canada” trended last night crashing their government’s web site. Thanks, Der Furor, for your rousing victory speech! ;^)
Equally hilarious, I’m not the only one who noticed Chris Christie’s lack of enthusiasm during his Trump victory rally warm-up speech. Tweets asking Der Furor to free Christie trended on Twitter! ;^)
Poor Bill Kristol*. On “Morning Joe” today, it was clear that Trump’s hostile takeover of the Grand Old Party really has Kristol flummoxed and frustrated – the traditional power structure in the GOP has failed fabulously yet, despite admitting that he has been wrong on Trump, he is still hoping that some GOP power brokers (along with the remaining candidates and paid TV ads) can stop Trump’s march to the nomination. After saying that a betting man would go with Trump, Kristol said, “But it’s not inevitable and I think there will be a vicious, er, a very vigorous fight over the next 2 weeks.”
LOL! He realized what he said and quickly changed it from vicious to vigorous. Oops! Grab the popcorn, folks, and hold on!
*Btw, I haven’t caught Rove on the teevee lately. Has anyone heard him state his feelings on Trump getting the GOP nomination? I’m guessing that he’s much like Kristol and is hating the thought of Trump being their nominee but I don’t know that for sure. Anyone know Rove’s take on Trump? Is Rove fighting it or has he resigned himself that Trump is the GOP’s guy this election?
It’s pretty much turn out the lights time for Bernie unless Fox’s wet dream comes true and Hillary goes to jail, do not pass go over Email-gate. Progressives will have to be satisfied with him spreading their message through to the convention. His base lacks diversity and he got slaughtered here in the critical swing state of Virginia.
The Republican race is far more interesting. The Republican Party is re-energized with primary voters coming out in larger numbers in all states but Vermont to vote for Der Furor and the others in the back seat of the clown car. Tea Party extremist Ted Cruz in 2nd place? You’re kidding me!
It looks like The Donald is unstoppable as the front-runner but may not get enough delegates to avoid a convention fight. That vague hope leads to all sorts of delicious possibilities but I doubt we’ll be that lucky.
Trump versus Hillary. Too premature to ponder this race which seemed impossible a few months ago?
Hillary isn’t a very exciting candidate even though I think she’d be a very competent president. Can she draw the Bernie voters she’ll desperate need who were attracted by his passion?
Trump is tearing the Republican Party apart goes the pundit narrative but will die-hard Republicans who hate the Democrats and Hillary most of all stay home to help her get into the White House? That seems unimaginable no matter how they gripe.
Huge shock it’s all about turnout. Trump can draw crowds but will enough moderates and mainstream Republicans stay home to derail his campaign? Can Hillary rebuild the Obama coalition? Can Obama help her? Or is that horse done?
I know I’m scared. ;^)
“I shudder to think of what would happen if Donald Trump were actually to somehow get into the White House. (me, too; me too, with spades) It’s not just that […] we’d be the laughingstock of the world. (already the case) It’s that his nastiness toward other countries would be paid back with interest. (unless, of course, The Donald as POTUS decides to cut the sort of deals that caused his repeated bankruptcies …)
A query: where would one go to get a few thousand copies of the movie “Idiocracy”? That’s one I think might penetrate a few consciences because it was made before the current wave of craziness and yet it conveys perfectly (to my mind) what could happen were all that anger and hatred result in a Trump presidency.
Another query: the pundits apparently assume that the superdelegates are in Hillary’s pocket. As I recall, many if not most of them followed the popular vote during a past election. In any case, she seems to be on an irresistable roll but I am very, very glad that Bernie is still in the game. I give him credit for having guided the Dem race on a substantive and civil path (Hillary got just a tad too nasty for my taste towards the end of the race in 2008).
Kevin, I don’t know if Hannity is really angry or not but I do believe he wants the GOP to destroy any and everything Democratic. He’s a hate mongering radical who has the nerve to accuse others of not being patriotic.
I do believe that the GOP will primary him with a vengeance, based on his behavior throughout his Senate term and through this race. I have a feeling they’ll find another GOP candidate in Texas who’s more amenable to working with other people than Cruz.
The GOP will survive this election but it doesn’t look like it’s going to be pretty. Outlets like Fox News and right wing radio have riled up a lot of the GOP base into incoherent anger – it’s gotten to the point that they don’t understand the nature of negotiation and compromise. (And it’s frankly scary that Donald Trump’s discussion about that actually sounds halfway sane when compared with what you regularly hear from Ted Cruz and from Rush Limbaugh and from Sean Hannity.) The GOP base has repeatedly been fired up for each election by Fox News promising that THIS time they were going to stop everything those bad liberals were doing. And then, when actual governance still happened and they weren’t able to just shut everything down forever, Fox News got the base fired up about how their representatives were not doing what they said they would.
The result for this election cycle is that it appears that the GOP is going to nominate someone with no understanding of politics and no temperament for governing. I shudder to think of what would happen if Donald Trump were actually to somehow get into the White House. It’s not just that the government itself would completely grind to a stop or that we’d be the laughingstock of the world. It’s that his nastiness toward other countries would be paid back with interest. We would find ourselves in all kinds of conflict, including both trade wars and military situations – all of which would have been avoidable by having someone who knew what they were doing at the helm. But I honestly don’t think the American people will actually make that mistake. I think the majority will keep the status quo, which means we’ll have another Clinton Administration, albeit with GOP congresspeople once again refusing to have anything to do with what the White House proscribes. I do think that Clinton will be savvier in her dealings with the Congress, but, again, Fox News and right wing radio have pushed things so far past decency that we’re not likely to see much accomplished for the next several years.
The GOP itself is potentially looking at its worst electoral defeat in over a generation. Even the Clinton election in 1992 wasn’t this bad. And the 2006 and 2008 elections were just corrections of what had gone wrong in earlier elections. This one will be bigger, specifically because of all the down-ticket damage Trump will cause. I expect the GOP leadership to essentially give Trump the reins for the fall campaign – saying to him “It’s your show.” If Trump somehow gets in, then he gets the plaudits. If this all goes badly, Trump will get the blame – and believe me, there will be plenty to go around. That won’t destroy the GOP, but it will hopefully serve as a lesson to all the people like Hannity who’ve been opportunistically cheering on the mayhem. (BTW I don’t believe for a second that Sean Hannity is “really angry” at the GOP like he keeps saying on his show. I think he believes that’s what his audience wants to hear, so he just keeps saying it.)
Clinton won 7 states – Texas, Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Alaska and Virginia, as well as American Samoa for a likely haul of 436 delegates per Washington Post, bringing her to a total of 984. This is a little short of what Nate Silver had as a target number for her of 453 but it’s still close. Also, I can’t tell whether WP is counting the 10 delegates she got from Samoa. Her number could be 446 which would put her right on target.
Sanders got 4 states – Vermont, Minnesota, Oklahoma and Colorado, for a likely haul of 260 delegates, bringing him to a total of 347. Silver’s target number for him for today was 412, which means Sanders was about 150 delegates short. The math that Sanders now needs to get the nomination would require him to dominate most of the remaining races, and the polls don’t show that happening. Clinton’s lead will only get bigger from this point on. Sanders can point to winning these states along with New Hampshire, but he won’t be able to make a case that he is the choice of the party when he’s this far back. By the time the race gets to California, Clinton will no longer need the superdelegates – she’ll likely be over 300-400 delegates ahead without them – and the math simply won’t add up for Sanders.
With the GOP, things were a little stickier:
Trump of course dominated, winning 7 states – Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont as well as pretty much winning Alaska (still waiting for AP to just say it…), which gives likely 186+ delegates. (Alaska is not counted in his column yet, but should yield him at least another 15-18. Nate Silver projected him needing 225 to stay on target – he’ll be about as short of his target as Clinton is, meaning that he’s still well within range and on schedule to take the nomination whether the GOP establishment wants him or not. He’s now hovering at 268-285 delegates, way in the lead.
Cruz was able to win 2 states – Texas and Oklahoma, but will have to share his delegates and not get the big boost he wanted. He picked up likely 125 delegates between the two wins and some 2nd place finishes, bringing him to a total of 142. Silver had him needing 302 delegates, so he’s fallen almost 200 delegates behind and, like Sanders, will fall farther behind before this is finished. The math says he can’t possibly get the nomination at this point unless he suddenly starts having massive wins and taking all the delegates from the next states.
Rubio won a single state – Minnesota, and again will need to share his delegates. He picked up likely 62 delegates, bringing him to a total of 78. Silver had him needing 203 delegates to stay on target and he missed by 125. He’s significantly behind and is running behind Cruz in the total numbers now. Some of the upcoming primaries will see him easily beat Cruz but still come in behind Trump, including in his home state. Like Cruz, the math no longer works for him unless Trump suddenly disappears.
On the other hand, it’s possible that both Rubio and Cruz together might be able to keep just enough votes away from Trump that he can’t quite get to 1237 delegates. Frankly, it looks unlikely given that Trump keeps picking up enough votes to easily get himself there. And the other GOP candidates currently have a total of 31 delegates between them. Kasich has a chance to show well in Ohio but has no strength anywhere else. The only thing I can think of that he’s doing is trying to hang on in case Trump doesn’t get to 1237, at which point he’s still in the race at the convention and could be a standby choice. Not sure that this is likely or possible, but that hope would be the only thing really keeping him in the race. Right wingers are trying to say that Kasich wants to be considered for VP under Trump, which is nonsense. I could see Christie trying to get that for himself (or a cushy cabinet position). Kasich wouldn’t be able to tolerate Trump’s behavior for four minutes, much less four years in the White House. As for Carson, his presence in the race seems to be just for ego’s sake. His main goal feels like it was to take votes away from Cruz, which he probably has – but not in any significant numbers. His smartest move now remains what it was after Iowa – to admit defeat and leave the race as soon as possible.
There’s an argument to be made that if either Rubio or Cruz got out now, they could tilt the race against Trump. I think the time for that has passed now. They needed to take that step right after Iowa and before tonight. Even if one of them got out right now, that person’s support would be split – some of the votes would go to Trump and his lead would just get bigger. This is once again an example of the selfishness of the candidates overriding any party loyalty they might have had. We saw this with Santorum and Gingrich, where either one could have taken over the 2012 race (and then lost spectacularly, of course). But neither one then or now wanted to be the one to bow out. So here they are – unable to win the race, but hoping they might be able to spoil it.
At this point, the best that either Rubio or Cruz can hope for is that they can survive to the convention and try to use their delegates for political gain there. But if they continue as they have, the number of delegates they have won’t be enough to swing the race – unless they give them to Trump, who they hate. When this race is finished, it looks like both of their political careers are effectively ruined. Rubio will be known as the candidate who couldn’t get it done and he’ll never be able to run at this level again. Since he’s lost his Senate seat, I’m really not sure what he’ll be able to do other than hope that someone wants to hire him as a political commentator. Cruz, on the other hand, is so universally disliked in Washington that it’s hard to imagine him even winning the primary for his Senate seat. He may well achieve his goal of getting a media contract, but his behavior throughout this race (the dirty tricks, the lying, the sneaking, the generally vicious tone he brought) will not make it likely that he gets the coveted million dollar Fox News gig. More likely, as I’ve noted before, he’ll have to hope that Glenn Beck’s little operation doesn’t completely go under by 2018, as it will either be that or Newsmax for him.
I guess I’ll go to bed on a good note. 😊
BREAKING: Oklahoma projected to be a Sanders win.
Also now looking like Sanders will get Oklahoma but lose Massachusetts. Clinton stays ahead in Mass by about 4 percent.
I’ll be very curious to see how the delegate numbers tabulate out in the morning. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rubio do better than expected there, and to see Cruz still floundering overall. On the Dem side, it looks like Clinton will come away with a very large haul of delegates. Sanders will have Vermont and half of Oklahoma. Let’s see if he picks anything up in Minnesota or Colorado.
Oh, CBSN declares Oklahoma for Teddy Cruz.