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FOX Friends focus on "likely" voter poll, which has McCain ahead

Reported by Chrish - July 29, 2008 -

FOX and Friends addressed the apparently conflicting polls from Gallup this morning 7/29/08, noting that the poll of likely voters that put McCain ahead by 4 points was a "much needed shot in the arm for the McCain camp."

The Gallup daily tracking poll has Obama ahead by 8 points and the trend is for a broadening lead. Obama also leads in a poll of registered voters (shrugged of as "everybody"); McCain's lead is in "likely" voters, which Alisyn Camerota oversimplified and said are those who "absolutely plan to vote."

Gallup explains its methodology of determining who is a likely voter here; they also caution

"...In general, most poll consumers agree that the likely voter model is most predictive in the final poll before an election; analysis based on likely voter models this early in the campaign should be considered to be a snapshot in time and suggestive of possible turnout scenarios and their implications."

and the unadvised weighting of such early polls is discussed here.

This year's historic election will see a flood of "unlikely" voters hitting the polls, many for the first time - that is, if they are not all purged from voter rolls beforehand.