Fuzzy Polls & Update
Reported by Eleanor - July 31, 2004 -
Carl Cameron on Fox News (July 31, 2:30 p.m.) reported the first Fox poll numbers since the democratic convention.
He talked fast, and talked for about two minutes, but he didn't show the numbers, or give a real over-all comparative percentage that I can recall. A chart or something would have provided a visual that could be more easily remembered. (I remember very few Fox polls that are not shown on the screen.)
Anyway, Cameron's headline was that Kerry got a two point bounce out of the convention - the smallest bounce ever - in spite of the fact that Kerry had a much bigger audience than the 2000 election. (Really? I watched three cable networks at different times, and didn't see much of the convention at all, plus the major networks skipped the convention altogether except for three hours out of 20 hours that were broadcast.)
In explaining the numbers, Cameron added that the bounce is bigger if Nader is factored out of the equation. I think he said Kerry, without Nader, is ahead of Bush by six points. Or was it eight points? Without the charts, a visual person can't remember the numbers exactly. Is it 50 something to 40 something or what? He did say it's outside the margin of error. (Whatever "it" is.) I heard Cameron's poll report, but the detail is fuzzy. I don't usually have that kind of trouble. Must be some kind of Fox speak working on my brain.
Oh, yeah, and come to think of if, I watch Fox polls every day, and if a six point lead is right, and Kerry got a two-point bounce, that means that he had a four point lead before the convention. I don't remember Kerry having a four point lead over Bush on Fox. Another example of fuzzy polls.
Update: At 5:04, Carl Cameron updated Kerry's bounce with a Newsweek poll showing a Kerry lead over Bush of 52% to 44% - an eight point lead - not sure about the bounce.
