Besides the special election in Ohio's 12th Congressional District between Republican Troy Balderson and Democrat Danny O'Connor, there are primary elections in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri, and Washington. As I write this, the Ohio race looks like a nail biter.
I'm watching Fox News which is barely covering any of the races. That suggests to me they do not expect a good night for Republicans. We'll see.
9:23 PM - Balderson is ahead by 1.3%
9:44 PM - O'Connor and Balderson are statistically tied.
Here's what Fox is covering:
And now this important story:
10 PM - O'Connor is up again, now by .1%
10:04 PM - Balderson just took the lead again. MSNBC's Steve Kornacki does not sound optimistic for O'Connor.
The race is officially too close to call, though it looks like Republican Balderson. Still, the outcome bodes well for Democrats, as per FiveThirtyEight.com.
I see this race as a cautionary one for the Dems. The turnout showed that the race swung up to 13 points toward the Dems from where things were just 2 years ago. Which should be a positive thought, as 538 notes. But that leaves out a major factor which is why the 13 point swing wasn’t enough – the gerrymandering that the GOP has inflicted around the country. In most congressional districts, it would take a much larger swing than 13 points to allow the Dem to win – they’ve been stacked that high. Which is why Dems should not be counting on a massive change in the House this fall. I’m thinking they’ll pick up about 15, maybe 20 seats, which will be a major achievement. But gerrymandering is done for a reason – and this makes the Dems’ work this year much, much harder. It’s why I believe it’s far more crucial for the Dems to get a 1 or 2 vote majority in the Senate, which cannot be gerrymandered. If they put their resources to bear in that direction, they can both protect the country from future malfeasances like the Tax Transfer and can keep a semblance of sanity about the upcoming judicial appointments after Kavanaugh is rammed onto the Supreme Court in October.
It’s possible that the Dems will pull off a historic win and suddenly overwhelm all expectations. Still, I’m thinking it will be more likely that we’ll see them do well, but not at the stratospheric level they’d need to actually change the math in DC these days. I truly hope I’m wrong on that. If I’m right, we’re looking at another 2 years of the Right Wing unravelling this nation one piece at a time.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/august-7-election-results/