The results of the Nevada caucus are coming in and so far, Hillary Clinton has a small lead, but it's still too close to call. Share your thoughts and observations after the jump. UPDATE: Fox just called Nevada for Clinton. 7:35 PM Update: Fox called SC for Trump. 11:26 PM Rubio came in 2nd in SC, Cruz 3rd. Jeb Bush has dropped out.
Does this mean Trump will be the GOP nominee?
David Lindsay, I partly agree about 2000. The only full recount of Florida showed that Al Gore had actually won the state, but by the time that recount was conducted, nobody wanted to pay it any mind. By 2004, the well was badly poisoned so I’m not as convinced of the stories that came out of Ohio. But you’re correct that W. was an illegitimate president. Both his presidency and the shameful Supreme Court decision that ushered him in will be remembered as unfortunate moments for our democracy. Thankfully, we are past them.
For Jeb, I think he really wound up in the wrong race at the wrong time. This entire situation of Trump being able to suck all the air out of the room is the inevitable result of 20 years of Fox News hate speech and 30 years of unbridled AM radio hate speech (from the destruction of the Fairness Doctrine under Reagan). If you spend 20-30 years feeding the angriest impulses of the right wing, convincing them that there is no such thing as a good moderate, constantly harping on the most extreme ideas, then you can’t complain when your audience refuses to listen to anything but the most outrageous candidates.
This is a serious case of “be careful what you wish for”. Fox News on-air personalities have been talking up how they didn’t want another Romney or McCain. Now they’re going to have to live with the consequences of having something like a Trump candidacy nearly take their party down. If we really do get a Clinton vs Trump election, I really wonder how Fox News will react to the inevitable wipeout at the ballot box.
You’d think an ex-governor of Florida — the land of “stand your ground” — would know better.
He may have started out as “Jeb!”, but he morphed into “Jeb?” and finally just “
Uhmmm, no, the only Bush rightly elected to the presidency was the old man George HW Bush. The other two terms, there was a crooked SCOTUS that had their thumb on the scale and an election with a rotten Secretary of State in Ohio. So no, Bush family, there is one term that is right and correct and two with big fat asterisks by them.
You’re also right that Cruz coming in third here is a major problem for his narrative. He was supposed to come in either first or a close second and way ahead of Rubio. If Rubio has skunked him out of 2nd place, that narrative falls apart. And if the evangelicals have indeed been turned off by his campaign’s dirty tricks and nastiness, then he’s lost the only part of the voter base that could have gotten him past Rubio. He’ll stay on through Super Tuesday but if this situation continues, he’ll be forced to choose between massive campaign debt or jumping out early.
Cruz’s bigger problem is that this race was supposed to result in him getting a lucrative media contract with Fox News or something along those lines. Looks to me like he may wind up getting nothing better than an offer to host a show at Beck’s floundering channel. Or he may try to run again for Senate, but I’d watch out for a major GOP challenger if I were him. Might be better for him to look for that media gig sooner rather than later.
Kasich is praying for a decent showing in Massachusetts, Vermont and Minnesota on Super Tuesday to keep his flickering campaign alive.
Carnival Cruz peaked in Iowa. South Carolina, teeming with evangelical teanuts, is tailored-made for him. A third-place finish is a big loss.
Donald T. Rump vs. Robot Rubio. Personally, I wouldn’t want either to represent me on my local city council.
Fux Noise loves Bernie only because his is not Hillary. When Bernie crashes and burns on Super Tuesday, Fux will be left with only unbridled hatred of Hillary.
Based on ego, I’m not surprised that Carson is refusing to concede. But this can’t go on. He’s raised some money, but that’s going to dry up quickly now. And his campaign claims to have x amount without noting how much money the campaign actually owes. If the numbers were to be revealed, I’d expect him to have significant debts already. The longer he stays in, the worse this gets. My expectation all along has been that Carson would be trying to get his own Clear Channel radio show, where he can happily opine every weekday. I still believe this to be possible, but every day he stays in the race, the more potential there is for him to do something else that further embarrasses everyone.
So it looks like we’re down to Trump, Rubio and Cruz, with Kasich’s only shot to continue being based on Rubio collapsing. I figure we’ll see all four still in up to Super Tuesday. If Cruz is unable to do better than today (and that seems likely), then we’ll just have to see if he stays in the race out of ego. In 2012, if either Gingrich or Santorum had bowed out to allow the other guy the glory, Mitt Romney would have had a real problem on his hands before the convention. Because neither man would concede, Romney was able to come up the middle. If both Cruz and Rubio stay in, they’ll continue to divide up the non-Trump voters, which would clear the way for Trump to actually get the nomination.
On the other side of the aisle, we have Hillary Clinton easily winning by about 6 points in Nevada, after all the attempts by the GOP to push Sanders and imply that Hillary was “panicking” over Sanders somehow beating her there. And the polling in SC shows that Clinton will handily win there as well, setting her up for a massive day on March 1st – the only contest Sanders appears to have an upper hand in is Massachusetts. I note that Reince Preibus took some time today to tweet that Hillary Clinton is somehow in real trouble due to her winning Nevada. I keep waiting for him to explain how winning a statewide caucus is “total disaster”. If she wins the election in November, does that mean “complete annihilation”?
After Super Tuesday, the Dem race will pretty much be over, in that Sanders will simply be unable to amass enough delegates to get the nomination. For the GOP, it will likely point to either a Trump nomination or a brokered convention, which would be truly entertaining.
And then we have the prospect in the fall of watching Donald Trump trying to debate Hillary Clinton. A true popcorn moment of modern politics. And not one that the GOP establishment ever wanted to see happen.