A Fox News poll came out yesterday with, as Bill O’Reilly put it last night, “good news for Barack Obama.” Somehow, he forgot to mention most of the bad news for Romney in it as well. But both O’Reilly and Dick Morris gave other, more-favorable-to-Romney polls more prominence last night in a discussion about the upcoming election. In fact, Morris was so definite about what he sees as Obama’s imminent political demise, that O’Reilly said he’d be “through” if Obama wins.
The cherry-picking alone was enough to make me think that Romney must be in big trouble. O’Reilly began by trumpeting a Rasmussen poll showing Romney ahead in North Carolina, and boasting about being an “oracle” for predicting that Obama’s support for gay marriage would cost him the state. O’Reilly went on to predict that “that trend” was also happening in many swing states.
Morris touted his own recent poll in Michigan where Romney is ahead of Obama by two points. According to Morris, Obama "solved" Romney's "biggest problem" - support from evangelicals - "overnight" when he endorsed gay marriage. Morris gleefully predicted 100% turnout from evangelicals would ensue.
Finally, after a minute and a half into the discussion, O’Reilly brought up the Fox News poll that found that if the 2012 vote for president were held that day (May 13-15), Obama would beat Romney by seven percentage points (46% v. 39%).
But that wasn’t all that was in that poll. It also shows support for Romney by independents slipping and a gender gap in which Obama wins women by more than 20 points. Then there’s this:
Obama voters (74 percent) are much more likely than Romney voters (59 percent) to say they are satisfied with the candidate choices.
Each candidate’s backers were asked to say in their own words the main reason they were supporting him. For Obama, the top responses are, he’s doing a good job (25 percent), his issue positions (13 percent) and he’s a Democrat (11 percent).
Another 11 percent say, “he’s not Romney.” Nearly four times as many Romney backers say “he’s not Obama” is their top reason (43 percent).
In other words, Obama voters are overwhelmingly more satisfied with their candidate than Romney voters are – and nearly half of his support is based on the fact that he’s not Obama.
Yet other than diminished support from independents, somehow, none of that made it into the “no spin zone” last night.
O’Reilly did say that the reason Fox polled registered voters, as opposed to Morris’ likely voters (which he touted as more authoritative), was that because the election is still six months away, Fox went for “the mood of the country.” O'Reilly explained that registered voters provides “a bigger tent.”
“And you say?” O’Reilly asked, giving a not-so-subtle prompt to Morris to rebut.
Morris said that while there’s a “real purpose” to polling that way, “If you want to know how an election’s going to come out, don’t pay attention to that.” He insisted that you can gauge the mood with likely voters, “given the level of intensity.” He meant anti-Obama intensity. He also went on to call the Fox News poll “an outlier.”
Rather than note what might actually contradict Morris, O’Reilly joked, “Do you realize if President Obama wins, you’re through? …You’ll be selling refrigerators in Topeka. ”
I don’t give a shit about any Rasmussen or right-leaning polling outfits that O’Falafel or Faux uses to justify a Romney rout. The electoral college decides it and the numbers lean heavy toward the Pres.
Morris’s “prediction” makes about as much sense as 2008, when he predicted the nominees would be Hilary and Condaleeza Rice. After Nov., lets see if Faux renews this jackass’s contract.
I have no problem with people saying that this will be a close election – there are plenty of people polarized to each side, just as there were in the last 2 presidential elections. But for Morris to be brazenly calling a landslide for Romney right now is not just arrogant – it’s like he’s openly handing people the pies to throw at him in November.