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Fox Business is Way Off on its Jobless Claims Prediction

Reported by Melanie - December 5, 2008 -

On Sunday, Mark Lieberman, a "senior economist" at Fox Business posted an article titled, Black Friday Caps Tough Week of Data; Jobs Report Looms. The "black Friday" Lieberman was referring to was today (December 5, 2008), the day the November jobs report was due. In it, Lieberman predicted:

The employment report next Friday will reflect the claims data and could show a drop in payroll jobs of as much as 300,000 which would be the largest decline since October 2001 following the terrorist attacks one month earlier.

Well, the jobs report came out just minutes ago and the number of jobs lost jumped to 533,000. 533,000! 300,000 sounds tame in comparison. It was the biggest drop since December of 1974 and the first time ever - ever - that we've had a drop of over 500,000 jobs in one month. The unemployment rate in October was 6.5%. Given this new number, it jumped, in one month, to 6.7% in November.

Comment: Lieberman should get out more often.