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U of VA Pollster Larry Sabato Predicts Win for Webb

Reported by Marie Therese - November 8, 2006 -

Prof. Larry Sabato, founder and director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, is one of FOX News' favorite guests. His predictions, based on painstaking research, have generally been very accurate, even though, in my opinion, Sabato himself leans right. Prior to the election, Sabato predicted that the Democrats would take 27 seats in the House and 6 seats in the Senate. Pretty good call!

STEVE DOOCY, host, FOX & Friends: " ... So many of the other national polls said, ah, they [the Democrats] might pick up 10 or 12. Why did you see a number double that?"

LARRY SABATO: "Because we study state by state and district by district. We also predicted - we were, I believe, just about the only to predict - not just me but my "crystal ball" team - predicted plus six, Democrats, in the Senate and I think, frankly, despite the closeness of Montana and Virginia it's gonna be plus six, Democrats. We also predicted plus seven, governors, Democratic governors. It may be plus six. Look, what we do all year long - were very sick people. [laughter from F&F hosts] We study the districts and the states and the candidates and the races and I'll tell you how we it. We do it the hard way. District by district, state by state, we do it individually. We do not determine election predictions from national polls because they're all over the lot!"

Sabato later went on to say that, contrary to the truism that all politics is local, "this was a nationalized election," a vote of no confidence for the Bush administration. "The American people are unhappy with his policies," Sabato said. "And they voted that." He also predicted that that there would be gridlock as Republican President George Bush suddenly discovers that he actually has the power of the veto.

SABATO: "It's going to mean less government. Is that really so bad?"

Later on, FOX's own Brian Wilson said that, if it comes down to a recount in Virginia, Virginia state law says the votes won't be certified until November 27th.


Throughout this four-hour edition of FOX & Friends, various hosts and guests took pot shots at Speaker-to-be Nancy Pelosi, claiming that she's so far left that she's gong to have trouble dealing with the new crop of centrist-moderate Democrats that have been elected.

I guess the character assassins haven't realized yet that the average American voter, in addition to rejecting the Bush administration, gave a resounding thump on the noggin to the Rove smear machine. This time the politics of divide and conquer didn't work. We're all just completely fed up with dirty campaigns.

I sincerely hope that Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will work together to end the name-calling and return civil discourse and mutual respect to both houses of Congress.

Then, maybe, just maybe Larry Sabato's predictions about gridlock will be proved wrong.