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FOX OPinion polls show big leads for Democrats - Bill Kristol needs a "couple of stiff drinks"

Reported by Chrish - October 26, 2006 -

In an interesting segment on The Big Story today 10/25/06, Director of FOX News polling Dana Blanton and "political analyst" and Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol agreed that it looks like, barring an "event" the Democratic Party will take control of the House and gain seats in the US Senate in the elections November 7.

Blanton was blunt: majorities disapprove of Bush and Republicans in Congress, giving Democrats an 11% point edge in this week's polls, and the trend has been steadily favoring Democrats with more Independents saying they're going to vote for Democrats.

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Another highlighted poll number showed that Democrats are more motivated to turn out to vote this year:

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Lastly, it was shown that Democrats are more trusted than Republicans on issues such as the economy, the war in Iraq, taxes, immigration, and ethics. Republicans lead in only one category, terrorism, and that margin (8%) has shrunk drastically from the 30% or so enjoyed just months ago.

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Gibson asked Blanton why isn't Bush getting credit, and she answered that it doesn't matter why - the polls show that voters are generally dissatisfied with Republicans.

Kristol, when asked what it all means, said it means he will have a couple of stiff drinks on the train back to Washington, because he would prefer for the Republicans to hold Congress. He agrees with Blanton that the polls have remained steady and shown a 10-14% generic lead for Democrats. He said we don't know how many seats that translates to, but he expects, as things stand right now, that Democrats will take the House and the Senate will become "very competitive."

Kristol said he spoke to a Republican pollster yesterday who was "very worried" about the margins. Typically Republicans are more reliable voters who turn out for every election, and this year it does not appear that that will be the case. Asked about the "vaunted" last-minute get-out-the-vote skills of Republicans, Kristol still seemed skeptical. Enough Republicans are so disillusioned about the war in Iraq and the Republican Congressional leadership they may well decide to not vote this time around, or even to vote for Democrats.

Gibson asked Kristol why Republicans would "lay down" if they don't want a Democratic Congress, and Kristol replied that the "swing" voters are difficult to scare with the specter of Speaker Pelosi. Anyway, Bush will remains commander-in-chief and should Democrats take over and pass tax increases (for example) Bush can and will veto them. What, really, can they do?

Perhaps there will be a "jolt" to rally the base, perhaps the NJ Supreme Court decision yesterday. If the Republicans have the guts to make it an issue and scare the voters with Democrats blocking Bush court appointees (because, as we've seen, they've been so terribly unco-operative and obstructionist in these matters. /sarcasm) Kristol names the big three - VA, MO, and TN) as states where that issue could best be used to get voters to the polls.

If you can't inspire them, scare them! Seeing Kristol so calmly resigned makes Rove's unconcerned, chuckling confidence seem all the more suspect.

See all the poll results here.