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Fox News' Stock Market Predictions - 2005

Reported by Melanie - December 30, 2004 -

I've often wondered about those money manager and stock broker-types who make predictions about how the Dow Jones or the Nasdaq market will do in any given year. How can they, and why would they want to, make predictions in the face of so many variables?

Comment: I'm especially skeptical about the financial and business pundits on Fox News. Overall, if you listened to Your World w/Neil Cavuto over the course of this year, you would know that aside from jitters reflecting Wall Street's primal fear that John Kerry would be elected president, our economy clicked along like a finely tuned Swiss watch thanks to George W. Bush. Things could hardly be better now, and they're going to get even better. 2005 will be a golden year on Wall Street and nothing, not even the deficit or the falling dollar, will stand in the way.

Today (December 30, 2004) substitute host Stuart Varney asked his round table guests to make a prediction about how the Dow, which closed today at 10,800, will do next year. Here are their predictions:

Rob Stein
Astor Asset Management
"Slightly lower than where it is here."

Jordan Netburn
Axiom Capital Management
"14,000 area."

Tom Adkins
Commonconservative.com
"I thought I was going to be the crazy man here saying 13 or 14, but I feel the same way." (The Dow at 13,000 or 14,000.)

Brenda Buttner
Fox News Business Reporter
"With any significant tail winds, which we will get, the market is bound to go up at least 10% this year."

Comment: I'd never in a million years invest money based on the advice I hear on Your World w/Neil Cavuto. According to the show, the market is primarily influenced by whether a Republican (good) or a Democrat (bad) is in the White House and depending on who is, deficits and the falling dollar do or do not matter. It'll be interesting and fun to check back this time next year to see how Varney's guests did with their predictions.