New FOX Poll Report, Same Old Bias
Reported by Ellen - October 30, 2004 -
FOXNews.com published a new poll report yesterday. As has become customary, FOX emphasized all the good-for-Bush numbers, downplayed a lot of the good-for-Kerry news and left some important questions unaddressed.
The headline reads, FOX Poll: Bush Maintains Advantage Over Kerry. The opening paragraph states that "George W. Bush continues to hold the lead over Democrat John Kerry... One source of the president's advantage is the war against terrorism."
Not until the second paragraph do we learn the news that would probably lead another news outlet's story: Bush's lead shrank by two points in the past two weeks and is within the poll's margin of error.
In the previous FOX poll, dated October 19, 2004, FOX's Dana Blanton reported that the president of FOX's own pollster, John Gorman of Opinion Dynamics, said "much of (Bush's) lead is concentrated in the so-called 'red states,' which were pretty much conceded to Bush at the beginning. Thus his national lead does not reflect a big lead in the battleground states that will decide the election." Ohio was the only battleground state included in the last FOX poll; none was provided in this one. Curiously, no explanation for those absences have been provided in either poll. In fact, this article makes no reference to the state-by-state electoral battle that will really decide the election.
Reporter Blanton says that "many look to a president's job approval rating... as (indication) of an incumbent's fate. Currently, 49 percent of likely voters approve of the job President Bush is doing." True enough, according to the poll results available via another click that I suspect FOX is hoping nobody will make. There, in question 11, about Bush's approval rating, one finds that Bush's approval ratings have declined by 4% since the beginning of October. Given that conventional wisdom holds that an incumbent president needs approval ratings above 50% to win re-election, I'd call Bush's approval decline very newsworthy. Apparently, FOX does not. It did not even bother to report the significance of Bush's ratings sinking below 50%.
Later, in the section marked "Top Issues," Blanton says that "The Democratic challenger tops the incumbent on the domestic side of things" in a paragraph following Bush's leads on terrorism, Iraq and "protecting your family." (In the FOX world, Bush's positives always surround any good news about Kerry.) Not mentioned at all is that Question 24 of the poll says that more people think the nation's economy will be better if Kerry wins the election (+4%). True to form, Blanton begins the next paragraph with Bush positives. "By 48 percent to 40 percent Bush is chosen over Kerry as the candidate who would do a better job appointing justices to the United States Supreme Court."
The final section, "Candidate Attributes" leaves out a few details that might indicate Kerry is gaining on Bush. Blanton tells us that "the president has secured the 'stronger leader' spot. Since early September, Bush has had a double-digit advantage over Kerry on this characteristic." Maybe so, but questions 27-31 of the poll numbers show that Kerry gained five points during that same time period. It may not be enough to give Kerry the edge on this attribute, but it could show the direction of the tide of public opinion. Similarly, "Bush leads Kerry, 49 percent to 39 percent, on which candidate is more likeable, and also on which is more likely to keep his word (47 percent to 40 percent)." Not reported is that Kerry's "likeability" rose 9 points since May while Bush's stayed the same and Kerry's likeliness to keep his word rose 3 points in the past month.
