Thanks Neil
Reported by Melanie - October 1, 2004 -
Neil Cavuto responded this afternoon (October 1, 2004) to my morning post, "Neil, What's Going On?" during the round table segment of his show, Your World w/Neil Cavuto.
Opening the segment, Cavuto said: "New quarter. Fresh gains. Markets jumping over 100 points today. This despite the sentiment that if the President would do poorly in this debate this largely Republican bastion would sell off. It did not happen today. What was really going on today?"
The answer: You can't predict what the markets are going to do in the short term; it's going to be a close race; more uncertainty; manufacturing looks very strong, some computer stocks look good. Today's gain had nothing to do with the debate. Kerry won but it was a small win, not a home run. The markets want Bush to win because they know what to expect from him. This is the start of a new quarter and everyone's buying back the stocks they sold last quarter. Even though Kerry was the winner, when he spoke he didn't really say much and was contradictory. Bush was on message and very clear. Kerry was a series of contradictions. In a few days, after the slickness subsides, you'll still wonder what Kerry stands for, but you'll know where Bush stands. The S&P will be at 1,250 (it's now at 1,131) by the end of the year; fundamentals and earnings look good and we'll finish the year up. Whoever's winning will influence the market just before the election. Individual stocks like Merck or Fannie Mae may suffer but semiconductor and tech stocks, while still cheap, are starting to percolate up.
COMMENT: When things are going well for Bush and the market goes up, Fox's message is that it's a result of the great job Bush is doing, and because Wall Street loves him. When the market goes up when Bush is doing poorly, this is the kind of message Fox sends out - a little bit of this and a little bit of that.
