Bush Has Done a "Miserable Job"
Reported by Marie Therese - August 12, 2004 -
The O'Reilly Factor. August 11, 2004. 8:38 PM to 8:44 PM EDT.
Guests: Tony Snow, Fox News Political Analyst and Larry Sabato, Ph.D., Director of the U. of Virginia Center for Politics
Wonder of wonders! They're worried about Bush's poll numbers on FOX's number one rated show!
Dr. Larry Sabato "made some noise when he recently said that Bush needs 'a miracle to win'." Bill O'Reilly and Tony Snow and the supposedly impartial Dr. Sabato spend six minutes trying to figure out what the Bush-Cheney campaign should do.
Not wanting to appear that he is against Bush, Dr. Sabato immediately jumps in to say that Bush can pull the fat out of the fire either with "one big miracle or a series of small miracles. Miracles come in many varieties."
When O'Reilly asks Sabato why he would make such a statement with 90 days left to go, the good doctor answers "I don't know the future. All I can tell you is that, right now, there just simply is no question that Bush is in deep trouble." And the reason?
SABATO: "Look at your history, Bill. In the entire polling age, which began in 1936, only one President has been behind in a series of polls starting in the spring of the election year and yet managed to win in November. His name? Harry Truman!"
Tony Snow, amazingly, critiques Bush as follows: "Well, I think in the sense that George W. Bush needs to show some fight, I think Harry Truman is a great analogy....Americans still don't have a handle on what his domestic policy is. They pretty much know the foreign policy. He still has to explain himself....John Kerry, on the other hand, appears to agree with the President on virtually every policy goal. He's simply going to be a little more polished about it than George W. Bush. That hasn't impressed voters either.....And keep in mind the President has the bully pulpit...if he uses that bully pulpit effectively, he ...can do some damage between now and the convention."
O'Reilly compares George Bush unfavorably to Ronald Reagan: "But Reagan was a more, better, smoother communicator than Bush is. When Bush can't bring the message right home, then the media gets in front of it and spins it around and the media really doesn't like him."
SNOW: "Well, that's why I said he needs to come out with some fight. He's done a miserable job so far."
They then discuss whether or not Bush will get a bounce coming out of the Convention.
O'REILLY: "OK. Now here's how I see it. I see the Republican Convention giving Bush a little bounce, particularly, since, I think, they're gonna get this Cider (sic) guy in Iraq....September will pretty much have it a dead heat. I'm almost positive that's going to happen. Then you go into the debates....Not since Nixon-Kennedy have the debates meant so much. And you go in there and you've got one guy who says 'I'm a terror warrior and this guy isn't' and it's gonna be basically that."
SABATO (ever the optimist): "I basically agree with you....it could be a series of little miracles, meaning that Bush, the incumbent, actually gets a bigger bounce than the challenger, which is unprecendented. And that Bush does better in the debates, two or three of them, than Kerry does. Hey, he beat Gore four years ago. It's possible he's gonna upset conventional wisdom and beat Kerry, too."
Snow goes on to say that Bush has to run scared and run tough. "If he doesn't do that, if they keep relying on gauzy phrases or recycled speeches from after September 11th, he loses. But if he comes out and he becomes the guy who drives the agenda and defines the terms of the debate, he wins. It's really up to him."
O'REILLY: "....He [Bush] doesn't have a story to tell us because the economy's improving, but not dramatically (NB: The stock market has dropped over 400 points in the past four days!!) and Iraq is still chaotic. He's gotta have something to show that 'Look, I've done this for you and it's gonna continue to get better', doesn't he...?
SNOW: "Absolutely right. But, he's got a much better story to tell than he's told so far. I won't go into all the details. But, they have reshaped the political map in that part of the world. A lot of people who used to be hostile to us are not anymore, despite what Democrats may say." (Tony, Tony, you've got a serious case of "fiddling while Rome burns" syndrome!)
O'Reilly admits that Americans do not think Iraq is going well.
O'Reilly and Snow end the segment with a summation of the electoral college situation: "He wins the election. I see. He's not gonna win New Hampshire. Favorite son, Kerry. He's not gonna win Nevada because of Yucca [Mountain]. And I think he'll win West Virginia because he's been very friendly to the coal people." Tony Snow interjects that Pennsylvania could be closer than expected. "In addition look for Iowa. That could flip as well. Wisconsin, the same thing. There are a number of states that were close for George W. Bush in 2000 that he can flip that would make New Hampshire and West Virginia irrelevant."
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