Gallup Foul-up
Reported by Eleanor - August 2, 2004 -
Fox & Friends (Aug.2, 7:25 a.m.) discussed the latest Gallup polls with Frank Newport, Editor-in-Chief of the Gallup polling group. The poll results can be found here: The Gallup Organization.
Newport made the observation that the preference of voters is "stable," and likely voters show that Kerry lost a point post-convention by going from 47% to 46%. (The democrats predicted a big bounce was said somewhere in this dialogue, but I remember only the republicans making that prediction, not democrats. As much as 12 points.) The explanation was that the conventions aren't having the same effect; people are not paying attention to the candidates; the major networks scaled back coverage; the president was effective at "rapid response" the morning after; people weren't paying attention; and on Friday morning Bush took the attention off the Kerry bus trip with his speech.
The top three issues, according to Newport, are the economy, terrorism and Iraq. When asked if the terror warnings help one or the other candidate, Newport replied that since 9/11, terrorism is Bush's signature strength. Intensified concern tilts toward Bush. (I wonder if the intensified concern will last until November 2, and how can round-the-clock threats to life and limb be a strength?)
To the question about how Gallup is different, Newport replied that they have been doing polls since 1936; they're scientific; and have lots of PHD's who know how to do polls and analyze results.
Comment: With all their expertise, how can they be so wrong this time, and why aren't we hearing other findings like Zogby's numbers showing no bounce but: "The new poll also shows the Bush-Cheney ticket losing a few points, and the undecided voter numbers increasing by three points" at Zogby.
Another important little item not noted is that the democratic convention was NOT covered by the media in attendance. With the exception of C-Span and PBS, the commentary that drowned out the democratic messages was heavily weighted in favor of the republicans. (What were so many republicans doing at the democratic convention!!) Some especially egrecious media bias was shown in CNN's giving the stage to Ralph Reed and Ed Gillespie, with as much air time as they wanted, to give the republican response immediately after the speeches of Edwards and Kerry . CNN also kept the Mics open so their audience could hear the "balloons not falling" dialogue, distracting the CNN viewers from Kerry who was reveling in the applause after his speech. The four letter words on the open Mic were more audible than the roar of the crowd.
Fox also did not report that these polls do not include the potential votes of millions of Americans who have disinfranchised themselves in the past through non-voting - until now. These people are mad as hell, and will show up on November 2 to get their country back. After the stolen election of 2000, and the last four years of disastrous republican "leadership," the previous non-voters now "get it." One vote IS important, and the only weapon they have. The Kerry and Edwards crowds are 25,000 or more in small town America. The polls are not reflecting that fact, and the media is not reporting it, but some things we know in spite of the media and the polls.
